A few weeks ago I had asked James what he thought of the mysterious alleged fundamentalist group that has recently surfaced in Tajikistan. I promised I would take a look into them, and here is what I found.

In April of 2004 Tajik security forces arr…

Anyways, I am doing some more work on Ba’yat now and will let you know if I turn up anything.

I also think that there are very few good ways to learn about extremism in Central Asia, especially at this point in time. We only really have what the government says, and a few scattered reports here and there. Obviously the government has a strong incentive to advocate the presence of extremist groups because it allows them to tighten their grip. But then just saying “we can’t know” is sort of a cop out….

So we have the government saying that Ba’yat is literally the Taliban migrating into Tajikistan, and others saying it is 100% fabricated by the Government of Tajikistan. I think there is a lot of evidence that (arguably) extreme groups like HTI do have a significant presence, though maybe not the exact sort of presence the Tajik government suggests. And Afghanistan does share a massive and porous border with Tajikistan, so it is plausible that some Taliban affiliates migrate in.

Combining that information, it wouldn’t surprise me if there is a group now calling themselves Ba’yat that gained notoriety after an initial burst of anger and violence fueled by a local dissatisfaction with living conditions which they blame on the government. If you’re living in poverty, who do you turn to when the government won’t support you? Often, religious groups.

On the other hand, would surprise me if a group of Tajiks got together and chartered a new religious organization with the intent of opposing the Tajik government and propagating a new Caliphate. Some might come from Afghanistan, but it sort of seems like the Taliban has enough to keep itself occupied in its own country, although even a few migrants could make a significant impact on the religious ideology of the group.

Time will tell, and I may not be taking into account some important information.

I’d be interested in your take on the group as well, and if you have any sources in particular that have good information on this group.