The second part of this presentation was given by Anthony Bowyer, and focused exclusively on Tajikistan. For information on opinion polling for all of Central Asia, see neweurasia home.

Bowyer oversaw a public opinion poll conducted in Tajikistan by IFES prior to the February 2005 election (click here for full report). Below is a summary of some of the findings.

• Satisfaction has improved markedly since 1996; a majority has a positive assessment of the economy, and expects better times to come.
• A majority prefers a state-controlled economy, but support for a market system has increased significantly since 1996.
• Corruption and quality of water supply are major exceptions to a general satisfaction with the current situation.
• Only a minority is interested in politics, and that minority has decreased further since 1996; a majority also says that they know little to nothing about politics. Bowyer noted that this intrinsically related to the fact that it is very difficult to obtain local news in Tajikistan because most people get their news from Russian TV that does not focus on local issues. This is leading to an increasing reliance on the internet by the younger generation.
• There is strong support for democracy, and a strong belief that Tajikistan is a democracy.
• Democracy is most associated with freedom of action and speech, and is not closely associated with freedom of press, economic prosperity, or freedom of movement.
• 79% of the population believes that elections matter and are important, up from 39% in 1996.
• There is a very positive view of Russia, and a very negative view of Uzbekistan.
• Islamic extremists are seen as the biggest threat group, namely Hizb ut-Tahrir.

Bowyer noted that the Tajik government is still enjoying a “honeymoon” precipitated by the end of the civil war. The regime enjoys very high tolerance because people are so happy to be done with the fighting.

He also noted that the Islamic parties in Tajikistan are not very visible, but are doing a very good job of attracting young people. Bowyer said that they stand at a crossroads between becoming moderate religious parties reminiscent of those in Turkey, ore more extreme underground movements.