Thanks

Mahadi

Thanks, your input is highly valued as it offers our readers a different (perhaps less biased?) angle to look at things.

I seriously do not want to sound blindly optimistic about the prospects of Tajikistan but I do believe in what I say but according to the latest developments, I do have grounds to believe in Tajikistan.

Of course my opinion could be somewhat biased since I was born there, but I am quite open for discussions should you have a different opinion.

In this particular case however I tend to agree with you both. I think at its current stage the country is overly reliant on Russia economically (guest workers in Russia, Tajik plants sold for a penny to Russians, etc.). This may not be the best choice since open economic and stable political situation could add up to a lot more in country’s prosperity.

That said I do not underestimate the importance of Russia as a military/security support in Tajikistan. However, the role in Russia is hardly of any economic value.

I think the economic growth in the country is underestimated (and yes Ataman, you are right here: because of remmitances and drug money). I also agree that many talented Tajiks have left the country.

However, this is changing now. Many Tajiks who have studied and lived abroad are willing to come back home and start re-building the country if they are let to freely do so. I think in the next few years you will see an influx of brains back to the country (be it with international corporations or on their own).

The bottom line is that education and liberal political and economic conditions should be in the center of attention for the current government.

1999 because then, the economy in some parts of Russia started to take off again and so did the demand for labor, leading to the ‘mardikor’ phenomenon: the Tajik migrant workers who send remittances home. That, more than any international aid programme, has been a boost for local economies (also a source of brain drain but anayway); you can actually see that in a number of villages (most ‘mardikor’ come from the villages) that were kind of revitalised with remittances (like in Morocco or parts of Turkey); they also led to a demand and development of financial services such as Western Union, Moneygram, etc. there were Tajikistan long had none.

2001 because of: a) the de facto end of the war; imo, the Tajik civil war did not ended with the 1997 peace and power-sharing agreement but lasted in some parts of the country until mid-2001 e.g. the separatist coup attempt by ex-Popular Front/Tashkent-backed polkovnik Mahmud in Sugd/Leninabad in 1999; UTO renegades (Mullo Abdullo, Rakhman Hitler, Ravzon, … ) who were active in the Romit and Darband/Komsomolabad area until well into 2001, … ; b) new confidence due to the changes in Northern Afghanistan and the *relative* calm there now (Qunduz/Taloqan/Faizabad area).

This said, we should keep in mind that the smart *official* economic growth stats for Tajikistan (9.1% in 2002, almost 10 in 2003) are only part of the picture.The bulk of the country’s *offcial* GDP still comes from two sectors: a) cotton; b) the aluminium plant in Regar/Tursunzade, both of whom are controlled by certain power clans. And the social conditions in the cotton sector, for example, are dire (some parts of the Vakhsh valley, for example).

Also, I know that construction is taking off and that real estate prices in Dushanbe have gone up sharply over the last couple of years; that could be an indicator but could also mean that there is a lot of illicit money (war from profiteers, drug traffic, …) that has to be ‘recycled’ somehow and one of the ways to do that is to invest in real estate.

And yes I think we can all agree than abundance of natural resources (oil, gas, copper, gold, …) do not mean ‘stability’ and ‘prosperity’, at least not for the bulk of the population.

Some countries transcended raw material over-dependency in time by diversing their economies, eg. the Netherlands (natural gas) and Norway (North Sea oil) in the early ‘60s, Qatar and Dubai who are ‘recycling’ themselves into finance and trade centres since the ‘90s. But all in all, there is a direct link between raw material richess and instability, geopolitical rivalry, institutionalised corruption and huge social-economic gaps. Examples galore.

“I say that because I lived in a city that was devastated by war and I saw how it was rebuilt in a mere two years by the very people who lived there.”

Kurgantyube? Kulyab?

So you may be right TB, perhaps Tajikistan has the brightest future in the region.