Tajikistan as a success story
The US ambassador to Tajikistan Richard E. Hoagland sees Tajikistan as a remarkable success story. In this article he goes on to a great detail to describe his observations and share his thoughts about the economic development of the country for the past three years. It is quite a pleasant surprise to learn that he has such a great faith in the future of the country, but again after living in the country for a while and witnessing the potential of people who live in Tajikistan this becomes a natural conclusion. I am glad he has that rare vision that cuts deep into the potential of the nation and goes beyond the present.
In the 1990s, Tajikistan “suffered a double blow,” Richard E. Hoagland, U.S. ambassador to Tajikistan, said in a March 31 speech. Gaining independence in 1991, the former Soviet republic lost its financial support from Russia and quickly fell into a “catastrophic” civil war lasting from 1992 until 1997, Hoagland said.
Today, Tajikistan is “well on its way not just to recovery but to prosperity,” Hoagland said at the Center for Strategic Research of the President of Tajikistan.
It is true that Tajikistan has had a bad start after the fall of Soviet Union. Apart from losing subsidies from Moscow, it plunged into a civil war that devastated the country even further. The country has no substantial natural resources to offer to the rest of the world, apart from drinking and irrigation water and hydropower. The country’s only aluminum smelter takes up a sizable portion of its current industrial production and GDP. But all these facts of life and particularly the civil war unified Tajiks and made them much stronger as a nation. The economic growth that the country has experienced in the past few years is a result of all these circumstances. Tajiks have been given a lemon and learned how to make a lemonade. But the trick is not to stop at what has already been achieved.
I believe Tajikistan’s main resource is its people. I believe that Tajiks have an unbelievably competitive and progressive nature and given the right economical and political conditions they will undoubtedly prosper as a nation. I say that because I lived in a city that was devastated by war and I saw how it was rebuilt in a mere two years by the very people who lived there. Back then these people had virtually nothing to start their lives (their houses were burned down and vandalized), they only had a hope that tomorrow will be a better day than today and they were the only ones who could make it so.
I am sure this attitude is still present overall in the society and I believe it is this spirit (and anything that encourages it) that would make the country grow in the future.
on April 6th, 2006 at 2:52 am
I know this is an old argument, but small countries not as rich in resources like Tajikistan are at an advantage, to a certain extent. They don’t have all the baggage that goes with natural resources like oil. Small countries are forced to have very smart economic policies and open markets, or else they have no hope of being prosperous because of their size alone. Finally, without the resources to fight over, countries like Russia, China, and the US are more apt to work together instead of engage in geopolitical turf wars.
So you may be right TB, perhaps Tajikistan has the brightest future in the region.
on April 6th, 2006 at 9:25 am
It is a quite interesting country indeed. The situation when I first went to the country in 1998 (Isfara was the first place I visited in Taj) and that in 2002 very different, yes. My impression is that things in Taj started to pick up again in 1999 and in 2001.
1999 because then, the economy in some parts of Russia started to take off again and so did the demand for labor, leading to the ‘mardikor’ phenomenon: the Tajik migrant workers who send remittances home. That, more than any international aid programme, has been a boost for local economies (also a source of brain drain but anayway); you can actually see that in a number of villages (most ‘mardikor’ come from the villages) that were kind of revitalised with remittances (like in Morocco or parts of Turkey); they also led to a demand and development of financial services such as Western Union, Moneygram, etc. there were Tajikistan long had none.
2001 because of: a) the de facto end of the war; imo, the Tajik civil war did not ended with the 1997 peace and power-sharing agreement but lasted in some parts of the country until mid-2001 e.g. the separatist coup attempt by ex-Popular Front/Tashkent-backed polkovnik Mahmud in Sugd/Leninabad in 1999; UTO renegades (Mullo Abdullo, Rakhman Hitler, Ravzon, … ) who were active in the Romit and Darband/Komsomolabad area until well into 2001, … ; b) new confidence due to the changes in Northern Afghanistan and the *relative* calm there now (Qunduz/Taloqan/Faizabad area).
This said, we should keep in mind that the smart *official* economic growth stats for Tajikistan (9.1% in 2002, almost 10 in 2003) are only part of the picture.The bulk of the country’s *offcial* GDP still comes from two sectors: a) cotton; b) the aluminium plant in Regar/Tursunzade, both of whom are controlled by certain power clans. And the social conditions in the cotton sector, for example, are dire (some parts of the Vakhsh valley, for example).
Also, I know that construction is taking off and that real estate prices in Dushanbe have gone up sharply over the last couple of years; that could be an indicator but could also mean that there is a lot of illicit money (war from profiteers, drug traffic, …) that has to be ‘recycled’ somehow and one of the ways to do that is to invest in real estate.
And yes I think we can all agree than abundance of natural resources (oil, gas, copper, gold, …) do not mean ‘stability’ and ‘prosperity’, at least not for the bulk of the population.
Some countries transcended raw material over-dependency in time by diversing their economies, eg. the Netherlands (natural gas) and Norway (North Sea oil) in the early ‘60s, Qatar and Dubai who are ‘recycling’ themselves into finance and trade centres since the ‘90s. But all in all, there is a direct link between raw material richess and instability, geopolitical rivalry, institutionalised corruption and huge social-economic gaps. Examples galore.
“I say that because I lived in a city that was devastated by war and I saw how it was rebuilt in a mere two years by the very people who lived there.”
Kurgantyube? Kulyab?
on April 6th, 2006 at 4:16 pm
James/Ataman
I seriously do not want to sound blindly optimistic about the prospects of Tajikistan but I do believe in what I say but according to the latest developments, I do have grounds to believe in Tajikistan.
Of course my opinion could be somewhat biased since I was born there, but I am quite open for discussions should you have a different opinion.
In this particular case however I tend to agree with you both. I think at its current stage the country is overly reliant on Russia economically (guest workers in Russia, Tajik plants sold for a penny to Russians, etc.). This may not be the best choice since open economic and stable political situation could add up to a lot more in country’s prosperity.
That said I do not underestimate the importance of Russia as a military/security support in Tajikistan. However, the role in Russia is hardly of any economic value.
I think the economic growth in the country is underestimated (and yes Ataman, you are right here: because of remmitances and drug money). I also agree that many talented Tajiks have left the country.
However, this is changing now. Many Tajiks who have studied and lived abroad are willing to come back home and start re-building the country if they are let to freely do so. I think in the next few years you will see an influx of brains back to the country (be it with international corporations or on their own).
The bottom line is that education and liberal political and economic conditions should be in the center of attention for the current government.
on April 7th, 2006 at 5:23 pm
Clarification: ….”However, the role OF Russia in TAJIKISTAN is hardly of any economic value.” This is what I meant originally.
on April 10th, 2006 at 1:02 pm
What I described was meant to be neither positive or negative but a number of factors that determine scoial-economic reality and dynamics in Tajikistan today.
on April 10th, 2006 at 4:10 pm
Ataman,
Thanks, your input is highly valued as it offers our readers a different (perhaps less biased?) angle to look at things.
on April 20th, 2006 at 7:26 am
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Thanks
Mahadi
on August 3rd, 2007 at 4:30 pm
hello tajik Boy,
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