Our poll is still open as of yet (English, на русском), but we will close it on the same day as the actual elections – November 6th. At the time of this posting the current president – Emomali Rakhmonov – was still had a clear plurality of the vote at 42%, with the next highest being the Islamic Renaissance Party and the Democratic Party of Tajikistan tied at 18%. Given that anyone with an internet connection can vote in this poll, and parties unwilling or unable to field candidates in the real election are viable options here, those numbers are a bit surprising.

The reality is a bit different than our poll. Here is an update and breakdown:

The Parties

Here is a shocking headline from the 23rd of September: “Rakhmonov nominated presidential candidate for November election.” So at least that silences the widespread speculation that someone else would be selected to head the People’s Democratic Party.

Currently, there will be five parties running beside Rakhmonov’s party (the People’s Democratic Party): the Agrarian Reform party, Economic Reform party, Socialists, Communist, and a splinter of the Democratic party.

The Socialists, Agrarian, Economic Reform parties were not options in ’s poll (although, to be fair, they probably should have been). Alexander Sadikov writes in an excellent post:

These parties have never had independent capacity. However, similarly to Uzbek parties, they claim to represent the interests of farmers and entrepreneurs. Neither opposition parties, nor political analysts have ever doubted governmental affiliation of the both parties.

So if on the off chance you would have voted for any of the three in our poll, just vote for Rakhmonov’s PDP party.

The Communist candidate is, like Rakhmonov, from Kulyob, and therefore unlikely to contest the presidency. Instead, the Communists are generally not seen as an opposition party, but instead as constituents rewarded for their loyalty with seats in parliament.

The situation with the “Vatan” breakaway arm of the Democratic party is a bit more complicated, but Alexander Sadikov has an excellent explanation of it in his post (also see IWPR). Basically, the Tajikistani government decided to register as head of that party someone friendly to the regime, effectively dividing and emasculating the party.

The leader of the rest of the Democratic party is in prison, and his supporters are boycotting the election entirely. The Social Democrats are taking a similar stance to the Democrats, both arguing that the election laws as established in 2004 are unconstitutional, and that a fair election is therefore impossible.

The only other viable opposition party is taking a less combative stance, but is still ultimately boycotting the election. If you recall, the beloved leader of the Islamic Renaissance party, Said Abdullo Nuri, passed away in August of this year. Into his place stepped Muhiddin Kabiri, a younger leader of a different mold, schooled at university instead of Islamic schools. Because of the difference between members of the IRP like Kabiri and older more traditional members, along with the fact that they elected not to field a candidate, there is speculation that this party might split as well.

RFE/RL has an interview where Kabiri discusses why his party chose not to field a candidate:

“First, Tajik society is not ready for a person with a spiritual background to become head of government — to be president,” Turajonzoda said. “Second, the region is not ready to have an Islamist become president [in Tajikistan, and will not be] in the near future. Third, in Europe and Western countries — Russia in particular — they wouldn’t allow or agree to [an Islamist head of state]. And ultimately, when a person, an Islamist, is trying to become head of state — or even run [as a candidate] in elections — this could aggravate the situation within the country. That’s in the interests of neither the people nor the state.”

This comes as an interesting change after this earlier RFE/RL article where the IRP came off as much more poised for a fight:

“A presidential election will take place this year, and as one of the country’s independent and powerful parties, we will field a candidate,” Husainzoda says. “It is still our party’s secret. But we will reveal our candidate before the election.”

Obviously, the Hizb-ut-Tahrir will not be running as they are not a registered party (or even legal for that matter). Nevertheless, the HuT manages to take up much of the government’s energies, and authorities are more convinced than ever of a connection with the terrorist Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan group. According to a recent IWPR article, Tajik authorities are confident that they can prevent a violent HuT revolution.

The law enforcement agencies are focusing much of their attention on Hizb-ut-Tahrir, with frequent arrests of members, often for handing out leaflets rather than any intent to perpetrate violence.

“We can do anything. We can restore security at short notice,” said the force’s Captain Alexei Balashov.

For further detailed background on the elections, definitely check out Alexander Sadikov’s two earlier posts here and here.

The Election

According to the Central Election Committee, there will be a drastic increase of election observers – 12,000, up from 300 at the 1999 presidential poll. However, IWPR questions the quality of these observers, as only two “tame” NGOs will be allowed to monitor them - the Youth Union and the Federation of Independent Trade Unions.

These two groups are the successors of Soviet organisations, the Komsomol youth movement and the Trade Union Council, respectively. The Youth Union’s chairman is appointed by the Tajik head of state, and on September 24 the group reciprocated by nominating President Imomali Rahmonov as its favoured candidate in the election. The trade union federation is also expected to name Rahmonov as its favourite when it holds its congress on October 3.

250 of the observers will also come from the CIS, a group whose objectivity was questioned during the Kazakhstan elections.

Beyond these developments, there are wide ranging complaints of control of the media and electioneering on the party of Rakhmonov. Jamestown reports that fifteen different media organizations were denied legal registration.