Conflict within and around the Democratic Party of Tajikistan (DPT) has recently developed into a political stalemate. Less then 10 days before the presidential election, the DPT’s old guard led by acting chairman Rahmatullo Valiev still struggles to prove illegitimacy of the splitter faction of Masud Sobirov. The latter was recently registered as chairman of the DPT by the Tajik Ministry of Justice (MoJ). Most experts believe that MoJ’s decision was a revenge for DPT’s boycott of the upcoming ballot and another step in the government’s strategy to marginalize the opposition.

So far, the both wings have launched massive media campaigns trying to win over the public opinion. Masud Sobirov’s faction is actively using state-owned and government-controlled media, while Rahmatullo Valiev’s mainstream use what is left of independent media in the country. While the old guard was more successful in attracting public sympathy and support through media, the splitter faction led by Sobirov enjoys unprecedented support of public servants and government officials. Representatives of the Ministry of Justice and Central Commission for Elections and Referenda have repeatedly announced Sobirov the only legitimate representative of the Democratic Party.

The struggle for control over the party has intensified in the northern province of Sogd. Last week, regional chapters of DPT in all districts of the province voiced a protest against what they called the Ministry of Justice’s “erroneous” decision. They confirmed their loyalty to the DPT’s old guard and refused to recognize Masud Sobirov’s faction.

Jumaboy Niyozov, deputy chairman of DPT said only one out of 862 DPT members in Sogd province has supported Masud Sobirov.

“Sobirov’s people are trying to make our members switch sides. However, only one of our members has done so,” Jumaboy Niyozov said.

Meanwhile, Davron Karimov who represents Masud Sobirov in Khujand, administrative centre of the Sogd province, argues that their wing enjoys wider support in the province.

“We collected over 50 thousand signatures in support of our candidate for president. This would be impossible if we did not have popular support in Sogd,” Karimov suggested.

Another controversial point in the rival wings’ dispute is the DPT’s official newspaper Adolat (Justice). Immediately after MoJ’s contentious decision to recognize him as DPT chairman, Masud Sobirov demanded that the Ministry of Culture, which is responsible for mass media regulation, suspend the printing of Adolat by Valiev’s group. The Ministry of Culture sent an official letter to the group requesting to stop publishing the newspaper. However, Valiev’s team ignored the Ministry’s demand and continued publishing the paper. For the last three weeks, there have been two versions of the paper coming out of print every Thursday, one published by Valiev’s group and the other by Sobirov-led faction.

Most analysts agree that the future of the Democratic Party is currently far from certain. Although the government has masterminded the schism within the party and openly supported the splitter wing, the immediate uproar on the part of the Tajik public and international watchdogs made the authorities not go further. Sobirov’s candidate for president “failed” to collect the 160 thousand signatures needed to be officially registered as a candidate.

It is most likely that the situation with DPT will be resolved after the presidential election in which the incumbent Rakhmonov is expected to easily secure another 14 years in office.

Two scenarios may be played by the government with respect to DPT. In the first scenario, Valiev’s group will be allowed to prove their right to represent the party in the court of law. In this case, Rakhmonov’s administration will add to the democratic façade that it has been creating for the consumption of international donors and foreign watchdogs. In a worse scenario, the authorities would let the rival wings to further struggle for control, thus losing popular support and what is left of the party’s influence. Although very appealing for the hard-liners in the government, this “divide and conquer” tactics may further alienate international donors and foreign investors, whose money is so much needed in the impoverished Tajikistan.