Tajikistan: fifteen years from now
Editor’s Note: What follows is part of a cross-blog survey that explores what Central Eurasia might look like fifteen years from now.
The history of contemporary Tajikistan began with a lot of problems and difficulties. The most tragic time was the Civil War which followed the break up of Soviet Union. The war left this country impoverished. It is now in the process of strengthening its democracy and transitioning to a free market economy.
Though the civil war is already over the living conditions of the population still remain to be the lowest on the post-Soviet territory. However the recent presidential elections and different surveys prove that the majority of the population is satisfied with the policy run by the current president Rahmonov. He is respected by the population for bringing peace to the country.
Peace and stability are the main factors which make most of the population believe that the present reforms conducted by the government will make their country prosperous. I also want to believe in that.
Actually it is really difficult to say what is going to happen in 15 years from now, but I hope that the life of ordinary people will be much better. So my assumptions are very positive, and I would say that below is the list of my dreams. May be I’m a little bit out of the topic but I think that it is going to happen if not in 15 years then in 30-40 years for sure.
I think that in fifteen years the life of Tajik people will be much better. People will no more experience any political instability: no more wars and confrontations. Tajikistan will continue to strengthen its democracy and will have a free market economy. People will never have such problems as blackouts because there are going to be several huge hydroelectric power stations, such as Sangtuda-1. Each family will have electricity in its house all the time.
The excess of electricity will be exported to other countries and hundreds millions of dollars will flow into the budget of the country. The GDP of the country after several years will be increasing up to 30% each year, or even more.
The new paved roads will connect all the settlements with each other within the country and new roads connecting Tajikistan with the rest of the world will be built. Tajikistan will build a road connecting it with the Indian Ocean which is going to boost the economy of the country. All the Central Asian countries will have direct way to the ocean and Tajikistan will have huge revenues from trade.
Tajikistan is going to have the best planes in Central Asia and no one will be afraid to fly with Tajik Airlines. It will not be the “Scare Lines” any more because the government is going to by in the next fifteen years new planes, mostly Boeings and Airbuses to ensure the safety of the passengers.
The government will start allocating more money from the budget for medicine and education. The life expectancy will increase and the population will be more educated. The education and medicine will be the main priorities for the government in the next fifteen years.
The number of prisoners will decrease and the living conditions of them will be better.
I want to believe that it is going to happen!
on December 21st, 2006 at 9:00 pm
Nice optimistic piece Vadim. Let’s hope that the government will make the right decisions. I personally think that education is key to success in Tajikistan, but again it needs to be build on a basic economic foundation that could support such simple needs as clean water, basic sanitation and food.
on December 22nd, 2006 at 3:09 pm
It’s good to be optimistic and hopefull, especially for Tajikistan. However, those roads and hydro-electric station that you mentioned would need to be built under an economic environment that allows such new mega-projects. Unfortunately, the “new” old Tajik government does not seem to be qualified to warrant such new initiatives that could help the country reach its potential fast. Its really frustrating for a Western investor to conduct business in Tajikistan, even for those major companies. I know, I was working for one. And its even harder for a private Tajik businesses to do business in Tajikistan due to excessive regulation and corruption. Unless the government really, I mean REALLY takes measures to provide a nurturing environment for private capital where there’s not a lot of red tape no business will be successfull- neither a large multi-national nor a small Tajik business.
on December 23rd, 2006 at 8:11 pm
I’m curious, do you have any links or references for the surveys you mentioned? I’m just curious to read more about public opinion research in Tajikistan. Thank you.
on December 25th, 2006 at 5:20 am
Vadim, you are even more optimistic than me!
Actually I also believe that Tajikistan will be better off 15 years from now. The good thing is that our government knows what we need and knows what direction to go. The only thing they are missing is WAYS to get there. I wish they visited this blog and learnt what other people think about the WAYS.
on December 26th, 2006 at 5:25 am
I like the part about “scare lines” :). But even if the government purchases newer planes, there will be only two of them - for flights to Europe and maybe Russia. Inside the country, we will still have to use old Soviet planes.
on December 26th, 2006 at 11:36 pm
Whilst I’m sure the 7 million people of Tajikistan would love for Vadim’s outlook to be realised, I unfortunately am far less optimistic. The government is corrupt at all levels and this inevitably has a knock-on effect for anyone or any business (or even anyone in government) attempting to make positive change. I can’t even begin to think how to start tackling corruption in the country, but I am sure it is the key to further, positive development.
Here’s an example of how corruption wastes money, trust and limits progress: Tajiktelekom (the state telecoms provider) wants to commit $15million to putting a landline payphone in every village. Any sane person would realise that this is money down the drain: why spend so much on excessively priced copper wire (for example) when a more realistic and cost-effective project would be to enable mobile communications in every area, something akin to the Grameen Bank project in India. Doesn’t that make you think that someone in Tajiktelekom has a vested interest in this project rather than an interest in the country’s development??? Either that or someone has a basic misunderstanding of what makes good business sense?
Let’s not even mention the government’s decision to cut off electricity across the country for several days in December whilst working on the hydroelectric power station…
And so I’m afraid I don’t see quite such an optimistic view. 15 years down the line, it’ll either be Rakhmonov still in power or one of his cronies. The tiny middle class will not have grown much; there will be richer people and more corrupt people, and the number of poor will remain the same. I wish I could be more positive…
on January 4th, 2007 at 1:35 pm
Emma,
Good observation. Especially regarding how people tend to make business decisions (which make certain people richer).
When you ask if people are corrupt or just don’t know what makes a better business sense I am more inclined to pick the latter without completely dismissing the former. Do you think officials would not find to make money with the wireless communication option? I am sure there are a number of ways you could make money (especially if equipment is bought in China) since the supply chain is as complex as the land line.
Plus I don’t believe Tajikistan has so many engineers to maintain that number of relay stations across the country. Could land line be cost-effective in the short term after all?
I agree with you that corruption in Tajikistan is the main impediment towards a more progressive state and it is the duty of the world community to educate those in power about the devastating effects of this phenomenon on the country and the ruling party itself.
And I do not believe that even changing the current government could do any good as such behavior is rooted deep inside the mentality of the population: You get to power in order to use it and benefit from it in any way you can.
Ordinary Tajiks can do little at this point as they are uneducated about their basic human rights and are economically and politically dependent on the ruling party. Anything they deserve to receive under their human rights (including political stability in Tajikistan) they percieve as a privilige bestowed upon them by the current government.
All in all I’d say the problem of Tajikistan is that of perception and human rights education. Once that tackled I am positive that corruption will resolve itself.
on January 26th, 2007 at 3:40 pm
Actually I also believe that Tajikistan will be better off 15 years from now. The good thing is that our government knows what we need and knows what direction to go. The only thing they are missing is WAYS to get there. I wish they visited this blog and learnt what other people think about the WAYS.
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