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	<title>Comments on: Tajikistan: fifteen years from now</title>
	<link>http://tajikistan.neweurasia.net/2006/12/20/tajikistan-fifteen-years-from-now/</link>
	<description>neweurasia\'s latest on Tajikistan</description>
	<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 04:20:53 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: halil</title>
		<link>http://tajikistan.neweurasia.net/2006/12/20/tajikistan-fifteen-years-from-now/#comment-9499</link>
		<dc:creator>halil</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Jan 2007 14:40:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://tajikistan.neweurasia.net/2006/12/20/tajikistan-fifteen-years-from-now/#comment-9499</guid>
		<description>Actually I also believe that Tajikistan will be better off 15 years from now. The good thing is that our government knows what we need and knows what direction to go. The only thing they are missing is WAYS to get there. I wish they visited this blog and learnt what other people think about the WAYS.

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Actually I also believe that Tajikistan will be better off 15 years from now. The good thing is that our government knows what we need and knows what direction to go. The only thing they are missing is WAYS to get there. I wish they visited this blog and learnt what other people think about the WAYS.</p>
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		<title>By: Tajik Boy</title>
		<link>http://tajikistan.neweurasia.net/2006/12/20/tajikistan-fifteen-years-from-now/#comment-7484</link>
		<dc:creator>Tajik Boy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Jan 2007 12:35:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://tajikistan.neweurasia.net/2006/12/20/tajikistan-fifteen-years-from-now/#comment-7484</guid>
		<description>Emma,

Good observation. Especially regarding how people tend to make business decisions (which make certain people richer). 

When you ask if people are corrupt or just don't know what makes a better business sense I am more inclined to pick the latter without completely dismissing the former.  Do you think officials would not find to make money with the wireless communication option? I am sure there are a number of ways you could make money (especially if equipment is bought in China) since the supply chain is as complex as the land line. 

Plus I don't believe Tajikistan has so many engineers to maintain that number of relay stations across the country. Could land line be cost-effective in the short term after all?

I agree with you that corruption in Tajikistan is the main impediment towards a more progressive state and it is the duty of the world community to educate those in power about the devastating effects of this phenomenon on the country and the ruling party itself. 

And I do not believe that even changing the current government could do any good as such behavior is rooted deep inside the mentality of the population: You get to power in order to use it and benefit from it in any way you can.  

Ordinary Tajiks can do little at this point as they are uneducated about their basic human rights and are economically and politically dependent on the ruling party. Anything they deserve to receive under their human rights (including political stability in Tajikistan) they percieve as a privilige bestowed upon them by the current government.

All in all I'd say the problem of Tajikistan is that of perception and human rights education. Once that tackled I am positive that corruption will resolve itself.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Emma,</p>
<p>Good observation. Especially regarding how people tend to make business decisions (which make certain people richer). </p>
<p>When you ask if people are corrupt or just don&#8217;t know what makes a better business sense I am more inclined to pick the latter without completely dismissing the former.  Do you think officials would not find to make money with the wireless communication option? I am sure there are a number of ways you could make money (especially if equipment is bought in China) since the supply chain is as complex as the land line. </p>
<p>Plus I don&#8217;t believe Tajikistan has so many engineers to maintain that number of relay stations across the country. Could land line be cost-effective in the short term after all?</p>
<p>I agree with you that corruption in Tajikistan is the main impediment towards a more progressive state and it is the duty of the world community to educate those in power about the devastating effects of this phenomenon on the country and the ruling party itself. </p>
<p>And I do not believe that even changing the current government could do any good as such behavior is rooted deep inside the mentality of the population: You get to power in order to use it and benefit from it in any way you can.  </p>
<p>Ordinary Tajiks can do little at this point as they are uneducated about their basic human rights and are economically and politically dependent on the ruling party. Anything they deserve to receive under their human rights (including political stability in Tajikistan) they percieve as a privilige bestowed upon them by the current government.</p>
<p>All in all I&#8217;d say the problem of Tajikistan is that of perception and human rights education. Once that tackled I am positive that corruption will resolve itself.</p>
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		<title>By: Emma</title>
		<link>http://tajikistan.neweurasia.net/2006/12/20/tajikistan-fifteen-years-from-now/#comment-6800</link>
		<dc:creator>Emma</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Dec 2006 22:36:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://tajikistan.neweurasia.net/2006/12/20/tajikistan-fifteen-years-from-now/#comment-6800</guid>
		<description>Whilst I'm sure the 7 million people of Tajikistan would love for Vadim's outlook to be realised, I unfortunately am far less optimistic. The government is corrupt at all levels and this inevitably has a knock-on effect for anyone or any business (or even anyone in government) attempting to make positive change. I can't even begin to think how to start tackling corruption in the country, but I am sure it is the key to further, positive development. 

Here's an example of how corruption wastes money, trust and limits progress: Tajiktelekom (the state telecoms provider) wants to commit $15million to putting a landline payphone in every village. Any sane person would realise that this is money down the drain: why spend so much on excessively priced copper wire (for example) when a more realistic and cost-effective project would be to enable mobile communications in every area, something akin to the Grameen Bank project in India. Doesn't that make you think that someone in Tajiktelekom has a vested interest in this project rather than an interest in the country's development??? Either that or someone has a basic misunderstanding of what makes good business sense?

Let's not even mention the government's decision to cut off electricity across the country for several days in December whilst working on the hydroelectric power station...

And so I'm afraid I don't see quite such an optimistic view. 15 years down the line, it'll either be Rakhmonov still in power or one of his cronies. The tiny middle class will not have grown much; there will be richer people and more corrupt people, and the number of poor will remain the same. I wish I could be more positive...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Whilst I&#8217;m sure the 7 million people of Tajikistan would love for Vadim&#8217;s outlook to be realised, I unfortunately am far less optimistic. The government is corrupt at all levels and this inevitably has a knock-on effect for anyone or any business (or even anyone in government) attempting to make positive change. I can&#8217;t even begin to think how to start tackling corruption in the country, but I am sure it is the key to further, positive development. </p>
<p>Here&#8217;s an example of how corruption wastes money, trust and limits progress: Tajiktelekom (the state telecoms provider) wants to commit $15million to putting a landline payphone in every village. Any sane person would realise that this is money down the drain: why spend so much on excessively priced copper wire (for example) when a more realistic and cost-effective project would be to enable mobile communications in every area, something akin to the Grameen Bank project in India. Doesn&#8217;t that make you think that someone in Tajiktelekom has a vested interest in this project rather than an interest in the country&#8217;s development??? Either that or someone has a basic misunderstanding of what makes good business sense?</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s not even mention the government&#8217;s decision to cut off electricity across the country for several days in December whilst working on the hydroelectric power station&#8230;</p>
<p>And so I&#8217;m afraid I don&#8217;t see quite such an optimistic view. 15 years down the line, it&#8217;ll either be Rakhmonov still in power or one of his cronies. The tiny middle class will not have grown much; there will be richer people and more corrupt people, and the number of poor will remain the same. I wish I could be more positive&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: GuRa</title>
		<link>http://tajikistan.neweurasia.net/2006/12/20/tajikistan-fifteen-years-from-now/#comment-6745</link>
		<dc:creator>GuRa</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Dec 2006 04:25:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://tajikistan.neweurasia.net/2006/12/20/tajikistan-fifteen-years-from-now/#comment-6745</guid>
		<description>I like the part about "scare lines" :). But even if the government purchases newer planes, there will be only two of them - for flights to Europe and maybe Russia. Inside the country, we will still have to use old Soviet planes.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I like the part about &#8220;scare lines&#8221; :). But even if the government purchases newer planes, there will be only two of them - for flights to Europe and maybe Russia. Inside the country, we will still have to use old Soviet planes.</p>
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		<title>By: tajikistan.neweurasia.net &#187; Tajikistan 15 Years From Now: a Less Optimistic Opinion</title>
		<link>http://tajikistan.neweurasia.net/2006/12/20/tajikistan-fifteen-years-from-now/#comment-6682</link>
		<dc:creator>tajikistan.neweurasia.net &#187; Tajikistan 15 Years From Now: a Less Optimistic Opinion</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Dec 2006 12:05:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://tajikistan.neweurasia.net/2006/12/20/tajikistan-fifteen-years-from-now/#comment-6682</guid>
		<description>[...] In his most recent post, Vadim predicts a bright future for Tajikistan 15 years from now. While I also have optimistic expectations of the country’s prospects, I believe we will inevitably face more negative developments in a decade. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[&#8230;] In his most recent post, Vadim predicts a bright future for Tajikistan 15 years from now. While I also have optimistic expectations of the country’s prospects, I believe we will inevitably face more negative developments in a decade. [&#8230;]</p>
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		<title>By: Alexander</title>
		<link>http://tajikistan.neweurasia.net/2006/12/20/tajikistan-fifteen-years-from-now/#comment-6668</link>
		<dc:creator>Alexander</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Dec 2006 04:20:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://tajikistan.neweurasia.net/2006/12/20/tajikistan-fifteen-years-from-now/#comment-6668</guid>
		<description>Vadim, you are even more optimistic than me!

Actually I also believe that Tajikistan will be better off 15 years from now. The good thing is that our government knows what we need and knows what direction to go. The only thing they are missing is WAYS to get there. I wish they visited this blog and learnt what other people think about the WAYS.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Vadim, you are even more optimistic than me!</p>
<p>Actually I also believe that Tajikistan will be better off 15 years from now. The good thing is that our government knows what we need and knows what direction to go. The only thing they are missing is WAYS to get there. I wish they visited this blog and learnt what other people think about the WAYS.</p>
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		<title>By: John</title>
		<link>http://tajikistan.neweurasia.net/2006/12/20/tajikistan-fifteen-years-from-now/#comment-6586</link>
		<dc:creator>John</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Dec 2006 19:11:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://tajikistan.neweurasia.net/2006/12/20/tajikistan-fifteen-years-from-now/#comment-6586</guid>
		<description>I'm curious, do you have any links or references for the surveys you mentioned?  I'm just curious to read more about public opinion research in Tajikistan.  Thank you.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m curious, do you have any links or references for the surveys you mentioned?  I&#8217;m just curious to read more about public opinion research in Tajikistan.  Thank you.</p>
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		<title>By: Tojiki Asl</title>
		<link>http://tajikistan.neweurasia.net/2006/12/20/tajikistan-fifteen-years-from-now/#comment-6490</link>
		<dc:creator>Tojiki Asl</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Dec 2006 14:09:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://tajikistan.neweurasia.net/2006/12/20/tajikistan-fifteen-years-from-now/#comment-6490</guid>
		<description>It's good to be optimistic and hopefull, especially for Tajikistan. However, those roads and hydro-electric station that you mentioned would need to be built under an economic environment that allows such new mega-projects. Unfortunately, the "new" old Tajik government does not seem to be qualified to warrant such new initiatives that could help the country reach its potential fast. Its really frustrating for a Western investor to conduct business in Tajikistan, even for those major companies. I know, I was working for one. And its even harder for a private Tajik businesses to do business in Tajikistan due to excessive regulation and corruption. Unless the government really, I mean REALLY takes measures to provide a nurturing environment for private capital where there's not a lot of red tape no business will be successfull- neither a large multi-national nor a small Tajik business.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s good to be optimistic and hopefull, especially for Tajikistan. However, those roads and hydro-electric station that you mentioned would need to be built under an economic environment that allows such new mega-projects. Unfortunately, the &#8220;new&#8221; old Tajik government does not seem to be qualified to warrant such new initiatives that could help the country reach its potential fast. Its really frustrating for a Western investor to conduct business in Tajikistan, even for those major companies. I know, I was working for one. And its even harder for a private Tajik businesses to do business in Tajikistan due to excessive regulation and corruption. Unless the government really, I mean REALLY takes measures to provide a nurturing environment for private capital where there&#8217;s not a lot of red tape no business will be successfull- neither a large multi-national nor a small Tajik business.</p>
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		<title>By: Tajik Boy</title>
		<link>http://tajikistan.neweurasia.net/2006/12/20/tajikistan-fifteen-years-from-now/#comment-6443</link>
		<dc:creator>Tajik Boy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Dec 2006 20:00:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://tajikistan.neweurasia.net/2006/12/20/tajikistan-fifteen-years-from-now/#comment-6443</guid>
		<description>Nice optimistic piece Vadim. Let's hope that the government will make the right decisions.  I personally think that education is key to success in Tajikistan, but again it needs to be build on a basic  economic foundation that could support such simple needs as clean water, basic sanitation and food.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nice optimistic piece Vadim. Let&#8217;s hope that the government will make the right decisions.  I personally think that education is key to success in Tajikistan, but again it needs to be build on a basic  economic foundation that could support such simple needs as clean water, basic sanitation and food.</p>
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		<title>By: ComingAnarchy.com &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Looking ahead at Central Asia</title>
		<link>http://tajikistan.neweurasia.net/2006/12/20/tajikistan-fifteen-years-from-now/#comment-6419</link>
		<dc:creator>ComingAnarchy.com &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Looking ahead at Central Asia</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Dec 2006 12:21:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://tajikistan.neweurasia.net/2006/12/20/tajikistan-fifteen-years-from-now/#comment-6419</guid>
		<description>[...] Our good friends at Neweurasia.net have posted their latest cross-blog survey Central Eurasia in 2021. Featured are a number of articles that cover a wide range of topics including terror in Xinjiang and a prosperous Tajikistan. Unfortunately there isn&#8217;t anything on Turkmenistan (yet?), which is going to be in some serious near-term flux. 15 years is a long time out for forecasting; basically anything could happen, but these articles will clue you in to some of the long-term trends of the region.      What say you? [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[&#8230;] Our good friends at Neweurasia.net have posted their latest cross-blog survey Central Eurasia in 2021. Featured are a number of articles that cover a wide range of topics including terror in Xinjiang and a prosperous Tajikistan. Unfortunately there isn&#8217;t anything on Turkmenistan (yet?), which is going to be in some serious near-term flux. 15 years is a long time out for forecasting; basically anything could happen, but these articles will clue you in to some of the long-term trends of the region.      What say you? [&#8230;]</p>
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