Tajikistan 15 Years From Now: A Less Optimistic Opinion
Editor’s Note: What follows is part of a cross-blog survey that explores what Central Eurasia might look like fifteen years from now.
In his most recent post, Vadim predicts a bright future for Tajikistan 15 years from now. While I also have optimistic expectations of the country’s prospects, I believe we will inevitably face more negative developments in a decade.
The bad thing about corruption is that it has a long-lasting effect. I am confident that we will not be able to create working mechanisms to fight corruption even in a decade. The longer people live in the atmosphere of corruption and booming patron-client relations, the more difficult it will be for them to learn to live without it. So, in 15 years we will still have corrupt officials and people willing to solve their problems “quicker” and “easier” by offering bribes and “gifts”.
Another dark side of corruption is that it has allowed some individuals and groups within the society becoming extremely rich while the majority of the population lived in poverty. In 15 years, as the memories of the civil war will fade away and tyrannical regimes similar to Turkmenbashi’s will give way to more democratic governments in the region, our citizens might want to question the results of privatization and demand their “share” of the public good. So, corruption creates a fertile ground for social instability in the future.
I would also very much like to see Tajikistan’s economy developing in the next decades. I am afraid though that in the next 10 to 15 years we not have skilled employees to ensure the growth of Tajik economy. Young people studying today at universities throughout the country will graduate with anything but adequate skills and expertise. This is especially true for law and business schools which are most corrupt and medical and education schools extremely unpopular with students. We do not have modern business, public administration, and IT schools. Without them, the country will not be able to develop.
Another problem we will have in 15 years is connected with the demographic situation. As the birthrates continue to be very high, there will be a greater pressure on the country’s scarce arable land. As the soil degradation continues and our cotton sector destroys the best lands, the country’s growing population will face acuter shortage of food. Besides, if the current demographic trends continue in the next decade, labor migration will create a society where we will have much more women than men. And Tajik men will continue to bring home AIDS from other countries.
There are also other negative phenomena and developments that we might face over the next decade. And of course there should be ways of avoiding or minimizing these negative effects. This blog is a perfect place to start discussion of our future and ways of making it better.
on December 26th, 2006 at 5:05 am
Don’t also forget that in 15 years all leading industrial capacities in Tajikistan such as hydropower plants will still belong to investors - Russians, Chinese and maybe others. This can also cause instability.
on December 26th, 2006 at 7:21 am
I think, what is in the West called “corruption” in our region is called “kinship” and it is very strong in this part of the world, especially in Tajikistan. So, if we say that we need to get rid of corruption, we mean that we need to get rid of kinship, which is impossible.
The problem is that we have “too many relatives”. If in the West your relatives are your siblings and your parents, in our country your relatives are everyone who have even the most tiny “blood” connection, especially if you’re holding a high job position or if you’re pretty successful.
I think bribery is the most destructive form of corruption and government has to get rid of it, taking rough measures. I think it is easier to fight bribery than “kinship”.
on December 28th, 2006 at 9:04 pm
In the West our relatives are indeed typically only our siblings and parents, but to supply them with government positions or lucrative contracts on the basis of their familial connection is in most cases a serious crime. It is so because of the damage it causes to society. That family ties go further in Tajikistan doesn’t make such actions any less damaging to society.
on January 4th, 2007 at 3:18 pm
This debate reminds me of my political science course in college. Whether a person will use his/her power to give his relatives powerful positions in the government depends on the perception of government by the population. West mainly thinks of its government as an authority whose rights are granted by the population (although exceptions are also there, i.e. UK and its Queen). There are also other perceptions of government in the world. The most prominent in Tajikistan is that government is the manifestation of God’s will.
Anyway, my point is that what you call corruption stems from the attitude of those in power towards their privelege to be in power. If there is no system of checks and balances those who are in government will almost certainly use it to benefit from it and get away with it.
on January 15th, 2007 at 8:39 pm
Generalising the WEST is really problematic here. The West is not one undifferentiated system, so one has to be aware of that. Besides, working in Tajik government is not very attracktive, I suppose, which implies that if a private sector is developed then a businessman is very likely to hire the best people in order to generate the maximum outcome. Therefore, I would propose a Kazakhsstan like system where the business and private sector is booming enough to employ the best people.