But I find it hard to agree with some of the posters who say that Rakhmonov is an acceptable leader - even if he is ‘bad’ and not ‘worse’. He’s awful. Tajikistan is still the poorest of all the old Soviet states, and progress is limited apart from a very few of the ‘new Tajiks’ who inevitably have links to Rakhmonov or his cronies.

The problem comes in establishing a genuine opposition. There are no viable alternative parties or possible leaders to Rakhmonov as things stand at the moment. I would say that this is for two reasons: lack of a middle class and lack of freedoms.

The middle class is generally where political action springs from but in Tajikistan, the majority are poor and devote all their attentions to their livelihoods and their families. It is only those who have enough money not to worry about day-to-day problems that can focus their attention on other areas. And this group is very tiny in Tajikistan, and mostly concentrated in Dushanbe. Those who are too rich don’t care for alternative politics because they’ve made their money with the current government. So it is down to the very few in the middle to try and make changes. There are a growing number of young people who speak English, have often been abroad and earn a reasonable salary working for international organisations who have the potential to make change, but I don’t think they are ready to do this yet. This is the group who hold the future hope for the country.

By lack of freedoms, I mean that (for example) whilst on paper anyone can set up a party, in practice you need the right contacts and the right amount of money to do this. It is very difficult to make your message heard if there is censorship of the press and communications in the country are difficult. But here there could be a vicious circle: if you can’t get enough support to win change through elections, the same restriction on freedoms through the existing government remain.

So there is some food for thought. I don’t have answers but keeping Rakhmonov in power is definitely not the right solution.

Emma

A new Tajik political movement based in Moscow has threatened to stage a Kyrgyz-style revolution if President Imomali Rahmonov does not step down. Analysts and experts interviewed by IWPR say that in reality, the émigré group poses little risk to the Tajik administration since it will find it hard to make any inroads on the domestic political scene.

There is nothing wrong with the idea of “Colour revolution”. It is the best way of changing the status quo: without bloodshed!

What Russian and pro-Russian Media say about “evils of colour revolution” as if it damages economy and nations will not get anything, these are rubbish, they are just Russian propaganda.

Indeed, Georgians and Urkrainian gained a lot from colour revolution, they secured their independence and really slapped at the face of Russia and its emperialist, colonislist, fascist Puten’s regime.

However, as for Kyrgyzstan, It was not at all a colour revolution, it was a coup de tat organised by Russia to bring more pro-Russian Baqiev to power, it happened as Russia wished.

Tajikistan is threatened by such a pseudo-colour revolution, a revolution to be imposed by Russia (and Uzbekistan). They want to bring a pro-Russian and pro-Uzbak figure to power, they want to establish the position of Russian as an official language.

But lo! They make a mistake. Rahmanov’s regime, although is bad, but it strill better than the worse. Among bad and worse, one should chose for bad, because it at least better than worse.

Despite wrongdoings, rahmanov’s regime is far better than anybother regime. If we loose the secular Rahmanov’s regime, we have no other choice, but either to accept religious fanatics (no difference, whether Islamic revival party or tahrir, they are all the same) or pro-Russian and pro-Uzbak anti-nationalist regime.

Therefore, Rahmanov’s secular regime uis far better thyan any other one. And He has popularity among comkon fols, among masses, I believe if Russia tries to do a wrong in Tajikistan, it will suffer a heavy loss itself. We historically suffered from its wrongdoing (Russians were behind turkification of Central Asia and they intentionally deprived us of our major centres of civilization - Samarkand and Bukhara) with our fate and we will still fight back and retaliate.

Faramarz.

I totally support the idea that there must be an opposition to any government to establish the system of checks&balances and right now Tajikistan needs one. However, I don’t think that Atovulloev is the right person to lead that opposition. He is the kind of person who can in one day bring Tajikistan to chaos. If you’ve ever read his articles, you know that he has very primitive arguments when he tries to criticize his opponents and uses swear words all the time - only emotions, nothing else. He is a psychologically unstable person and more like to become a dictator than anyone else. We don’t need that.

The allegation of D. Atovulloev per se is provocative and by value no more than a bluff and self-promotion campaign which is caused by a necessity to demonstrate before the donors his “dissident” activity. Atovulloev is perceived by Tajik people as an odious personality ready to do anything for a benefit. It is also known that his so called political activity directly and constantly depends on his financial difficulties. Who can take for serious D. Atovulloev, the person who betrayed his own people, the only Tajik who supported the mutiny of Mahmud Khudoiberdiev and his bandits who killed hundreds of peaceful citizens in Sogd region of Tajikistan?

“The insinuation of D. Atovulloev, about the membership of intellectual elite of Tajikistan: ex-ministers, ex-prime ministers, members of the parliament and many other influential people, is no more than a wishful thinking and maniacal superiority complex of a self-proclaimed leader of a so called movement.”

Thanks to all

Is that something you wish for, or is it that what you think about the current regime in Dushanbe? In the latter case, you don’t believe that yourself don’t you?

“The idea that the choice is between status quo or civil war is not correct.”

Agree. This is being abused by the Rakhmonov-Ubaidolloev regime to stay in power. But it will not last.