“Violet” revolution in Tajikistan?
The famous irreconcilable “political foe” of Rahmonov Dodojon Atovulloev has recently announced about the new political movement “Vatandor” (Patriot) which is according to him going to be the major opposing force to Rahmonov’s regime. The motto of the movement is “Tajiksitan – new way, new power [authority], new ideas, new life”. Atovulloev and his supporters hope to see the voluntary resignation of Rahmonov in the near future otherwise they promised to make a “violet” revolution in the spring (violet not violent). He made that desperate announcement in the interview for Ferghana.ru (RUS). By the way the same interview he gave to the Russian newspaper “Kommersant”.
Atovulloev claims that if Rahmonov resigns voluntarily, which is next to impossible, Vatandor will guarantee his security and even give him the privileges of a president. I do not understand, how can a person be not a president and at the same time enjoy the privileges of a president. Probably, Dodojon wanted to say the privileges of an ex-president.
According to the leader of Vatandor, the movement is made up of many famous people – the intellectual elite of Tajikistan: ex-ministers, ex-prime ministers, members of the parliament and many other influential people who are now close to current president. However, the body of the movement consists of labor migrants who are working in Russia. Atovulloev says that 1,5 million labor-migrants are supporting him.
I do not think that the announcement of Atovulloev will be taken for serious in Tajikistan, but if it is so, there are only two things that are going to happen as a consequence: first - our president will be more suspicious about the people who are close to him, what can give him grounds to put some of them in jail and second – at his request Russia will make harsher conditions for the Tajik labor-migrants, which are terrible even without that.
I am absolutely certain that Tajiks do not want to have any colored or floral (orange, tulip, rose, violet) revolution. They have not fully enjoyed the peaceful life. Obviously, I do not have a right to speak on behalf of a whole nation but that is my observation.
on February 22nd, 2007 at 3:25 pm
This is a wishful thinking and Atovulloev is going insane.
on February 22nd, 2007 at 3:52 pm
I remember, during the last presidential elections, some people saying that they would vote for Rahmonov, as they were sure the election of the new president would bring to another conflict between regions. Majority of Tajik people are reluctant to tremendous changes, and I agree with Habiba that Atovulloev is probably “going insane.”
on February 22nd, 2007 at 3:56 pm
Well, sooner or later, Rakhmonov, Ubaidulloyev and their provincial satraps will be overthrown. But it will not be by a ‘color revolution’ led by any of the perestroika-era dissidents. Many are discredited of have lost touch with reality in the country while living in exile.
Right now, the regime is successfully exploiting the trauma of the civil war among the population and they can hold like that for 5 to 10 more years. Yet it’s only winning time. In 5 to 10 years, a couple of fundamental things will have changed in Tajikistan and other countries of the region as well:
*First, the generation that was born between 1985 and 1995 and has no active memories of the ‘jang-i-buraderkush’ will become adult, foster its own ambitions and aspirations, and have its frustrations; they will not be that easy to bully with the ‘status quo or civil war’ mantra any more.
*Second, there is the impact on the mentality of the labor migration to Russia and of the widepread availibility of sat TV. See, you have a lot of younger men who form a vital economic lifeline for the country. Yet they have also been outside and experienced lots of things: relatively more freedoms but also racism in Russia etc. Once at home, they’re the ones with the money. ‘Xvalit presidenta’ and creeping for krutoi regime satraps and sycophantic village aksakals is not that obvious for them any longer. I think the regime is well aware of that. They can try to curb labor migration but then there will be loit of frustrated, unemployed youn men in teh country who will create havoc anyway.
Either case, the regime and its pot-bellied, bullneck alkash-nachalniki in bad suits are toast.
on February 22nd, 2007 at 6:34 pm
A Kyrgyz-like colour revolution is 100% possible in Tajikistan, of course not from within, but from without.
If Dodojon Atovulloyev is right, and does not tell lie, in his claims that he was able to establish an opposition movement in Russia, then we should closely monitor the Russian-Tajikistan relations, especially after Russian Company RUSAL forced out from Tajikistan.
Tajikistan once escaped the so-called “revolution” by submitting to Putin’s will in 2004 when Rahmanov was forced to sell, rather surrender major strategic “obyects” like Norak space observatory to its so-called “trategic partner”, a deal demonstrative of Putin’s colonialist mindset and bullying method.
Rahmanov must be prepared to get another blow from its “big brother” this time as well. Exactly like Kyrgyzstan, Tajik colour revolution may come from a close friend, that’s Russia only.
Otherwise, there is no condition for any such colour revolutions in Central Asia. This regions needs some fifty years at least to understand what is a colour revolution.
on February 23rd, 2007 at 2:11 am
Atovulloev is another weapon Russia is using to presure Tajikistan to submit to Putin’s will. He is not the leader of any opposition and he has no clue how to run a government or start a revolution. Saying all that Tajik government must wake up to the realities and can not expect thier bull-crap about bringing peace to Tajikistan to last forever and be the reason for their rule. Besdes peace we want JOBS, a GOOD LIFE and an EQUAL SOCIETY where everyobdy is given an opportuity to have education and basic health-care provided for their children and themselves. We want a society where we do not need to be a corrupt government official or relatives of the president to provide for our families!!! We want a society where we are lead by competent people who truly care about our country and the nation of Tajiks. We need a soceity where every religion is respected and every nationality is treated as a TOJIKISTONI not as a Pamiri, Kulyabi or Dangaragi! Atovulloev should just do what he is good at: writing articles. He should leave the matter of brining change to Tajikistan to younger people who have seen the world and can take us out of the mess we are in!!!
on February 23rd, 2007 at 2:03 pm
The government of Tajikistan is by the people and for the people. That means change comes from the people if it is to genuine or effective.
The idea that the choice is between status quo or civil war is not correct. There are many other valid alternatives. Any one can start a political party or run for office. That means ANYONE. It is then up to the people to make the wisest and best possible of choices to determine who they think will run the government best for them. That means the people must gain the education and experience and have the will to form a good, sound government. Then you can have the government of your dreams.
on February 24th, 2007 at 1:34 pm
“The government of Tajikistan is by the people and for the people.”
Is that something you wish for, or is it that what you think about the current regime in Dushanbe? In the latter case, you don’t believe that yourself don’t you?
“The idea that the choice is between status quo or civil war is not correct.”
Agree. This is being abused by the Rakhmonov-Ubaidolloev regime to stay in power. But it will not last.
on February 24th, 2007 at 2:38 pm
I am agree withone who said that this party is a new weapon of Russia which directed from Uzbekistan to pressure Imomali Rakhmonov to come bank to Russia and gave up the construction of Rogun. As Atavulaev state that it has consulted with Tajik opposition Mahmod Khudberdiev and AbduMalik Abdulajanov who get full support from Uzbak government. It means that Uzbekistan has control(at lest influence) over this party. Every one knows that for many years we depended after Russia To Uzbekistan.
I support change in regem but not to change it to worse regim which controlled by Uzbekistan. Rahmonove what ever he did and how he is but he agaist Uzbakistan we have to support him. We shall support reform from inside government but imposed (imported ) reform from Russia and Uzbakistan. what Kirgiz get from revolution and what people in Ukarian get from revolution. If we eveluate alls the colors revolution, we see those nations get nothing just more economic problems in their life.
Thanks to all
on February 25th, 2007 at 2:25 pm
The embassy of Tajikinstan in Russia has officially refuted the allegation of D. Atovulloev by stating that “the allegation of D. Atovulloev was unambiguously conceived in Tajikistan as an invited invective (zakaznoi vipad), which aims to misrepresent actual socio-economic and political developments in the country and also as an attempt to make people believe in existence of some kind of opposition, which can affect the course of political development in Tajikistan”, reports REGNUM.
on February 25th, 2007 at 3:36 pm
Faramarz, I don’t think that there is any necessity in Kirgiz-like color revolution in Tajikistan. I’m for evolutionary changes not revolutionary. I agree with Ataman Rakin that there will be changes “but it will not be by a ‘color revolution’ led by any of the perestroika-era dissidents”. The “exploitation of the trauma of Civil War” will not work forever.
I totally support the idea that there must be an opposition to any government to establish the system of checks&balances and right now Tajikistan needs one. However, I don’t think that Atovulloev is the right person to lead that opposition. He is the kind of person who can in one day bring Tajikistan to chaos. If you’ve ever read his articles, you know that he has very primitive arguments when he tries to criticize his opponents and uses swear words all the time - only emotions, nothing else. He is a psychologically unstable person and more like to become a dictator than anyone else. We don’t need that.
on February 26th, 2007 at 8:43 am
To Faroz,
There is nothing wrong with the idea of “Colour revolution”. It is the best way of changing the status quo: without bloodshed!
What Russian and pro-Russian Media say about “evils of colour revolution” as if it damages economy and nations will not get anything, these are rubbish, they are just Russian propaganda.
Indeed, Georgians and Urkrainian gained a lot from colour revolution, they secured their independence and really slapped at the face of Russia and its emperialist, colonislist, fascist Puten’s regime.
However, as for Kyrgyzstan, It was not at all a colour revolution, it was a coup de tat organised by Russia to bring more pro-Russian Baqiev to power, it happened as Russia wished.
Tajikistan is threatened by such a pseudo-colour revolution, a revolution to be imposed by Russia (and Uzbekistan). They want to bring a pro-Russian and pro-Uzbak figure to power, they want to establish the position of Russian as an official language.
But lo! They make a mistake. Rahmanov’s regime, although is bad, but it strill better than the worse. Among bad and worse, one should chose for bad, because it at least better than worse.
Despite wrongdoings, rahmanov’s regime is far better than anybother regime. If we loose the secular Rahmanov’s regime, we have no other choice, but either to accept religious fanatics (no difference, whether Islamic revival party or tahrir, they are all the same) or pro-Russian and pro-Uzbak anti-nationalist regime.
Therefore, Rahmanov’s secular regime uis far better thyan any other one. And He has popularity among comkon fols, among masses, I believe if Russia tries to do a wrong in Tajikistan, it will suffer a heavy loss itself. We historically suffered from its wrongdoing (Russians were behind turkification of Central Asia and they intentionally deprived us of our major centres of civilization - Samarkand and Bukhara) with our fate and we will still fight back and retaliate.
Faramarz.
on February 28th, 2007 at 5:04 am
Hey guys here is an iteresting article “New Tajik Party Seeks Émigré Vote” by Nafisa Pisaredzheva from IWPR.
on February 28th, 2007 at 11:03 am
First of all, I think everyone who has posted in response to this article is in agreement that Dodojon Atvulloev’s attempt to create an opposition will be ineffective and no doubt ‘wise’ Rakhmonov will agree with the statement of the Tajik Embassy in Moscow.
But I find it hard to agree with some of the posters who say that Rakhmonov is an acceptable leader - even if he is ‘bad’ and not ‘worse’. He’s awful. Tajikistan is still the poorest of all the old Soviet states, and progress is limited apart from a very few of the ‘new Tajiks’ who inevitably have links to Rakhmonov or his cronies.
The problem comes in establishing a genuine opposition. There are no viable alternative parties or possible leaders to Rakhmonov as things stand at the moment. I would say that this is for two reasons: lack of a middle class and lack of freedoms.
The middle class is generally where political action springs from but in Tajikistan, the majority are poor and devote all their attentions to their livelihoods and their families. It is only those who have enough money not to worry about day-to-day problems that can focus their attention on other areas. And this group is very tiny in Tajikistan, and mostly concentrated in Dushanbe. Those who are too rich don’t care for alternative politics because they’ve made their money with the current government. So it is down to the very few in the middle to try and make changes. There are a growing number of young people who speak English, have often been abroad and earn a reasonable salary working for international organisations who have the potential to make change, but I don’t think they are ready to do this yet. This is the group who hold the future hope for the country.
By lack of freedoms, I mean that (for example) whilst on paper anyone can set up a party, in practice you need the right contacts and the right amount of money to do this. It is very difficult to make your message heard if there is censorship of the press and communications in the country are difficult. But here there could be a vicious circle: if you can’t get enough support to win change through elections, the same restriction on freedoms through the existing government remain.
So there is some food for thought. I don’t have answers but keeping Rakhmonov in power is definitely not the right solution.
Emma
on March 27th, 2007 at 10:07 pm
there is no alternative to rakhmonov regime in tajikistan. people still have a bad taste in their mouth from the civil war. i agree with emma in that there is no middle class and it is the middle class who are the movers and actors of change. right now, average tajiks have other things on their minds than politics.
attovuloev fellow who claims support of 1.5 million from amongst the tajik diaspora is a liar. tajik diaspora is a mixed bag and i believe most of them are preoccupied more with their own survival in russia than engaging in politics that drove them to their current predicament in the first place. bottom line, i believe tajiks inside and outside are just sick and tired of big politics that only leads to unrest and chaos.
on May 9th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
hehe, i bet Atovulloev will die before his “violet” oppoition does smth… hehe as usual