This is the translation of the post on Russian-Tajik blog. I will try to translate the comments on the English-Tajik blog and post them on the Russian blog and visa versa. I will try to make a dialogue betwen the English and Russian speaking audience. Please, those who speak both languages try to leave the comments on both blogs. Thanks!

These days people in Kyrgyzstan more and more make comparisons between Tajikistan of 90s and the nowadays Kyrgyzstan. In 90s it was the time when different political movements plunged Tajikistan into chaos. The analogy between these countries of different times is drawn by people because of the upcoming political events which will take place on 11th of April in Bishkek and other parts of Kyrgyzstan. The opposition led by Felix Kulov – the ex-prime minister – will organize a countrywide rally to make the current president resign and call for new presidential election.

Many political observers, politicians and common people are beware of political developments by the scenario of Tajikistan, when different political forces did not broker a compromise and entered into a Civil War and as a consequence thousands of civilians were killed, more than that became refugees, and totally was destroyed the economy of the country.

During the recent press-conference organized by the United Front (the main movement of the opposition) Felix Kulov was asked whether he is afraid of Kyrgyzstan making the mistake of Tajikistan. He confidently said that the political developments in the country will not get out of control.

“In Tajikistan the situation was totally different. Many governmental officials did not want to lose their positions, and that is why they were against the opposition. We have a different situation. I’m not afraid of repeating the scenario of Tajikistan”, - said Felix Kulov (RUS).

Of course, the answer of the former general officer is not very convincing: firstly here is the confrontation not just for the governmental offices but for the presidential office, and secondly in Tajikistan the situation was not as simple as Kulov talks about it.

The real threat is the clash of two groups: those who are for Bakiev (the president) and those who are against (opposition led by Kulov). There will be not only the rally organized by the opposition, but also the so called “anti-rally” - rally in support of the current President. The last time when opposition organized a rally at the main square of Bishkek, there was an “anti-rally”at the old square near the parliament. It was a time when these two groups almost clashed but the law enforcement bodies restored the order and the situation did not get out of control.

There is a threat that the nowadays Kyrgyzstan can make the mistake of Tajikistan, because we also had in the beginning of the Civil War two rallies at two squares.