Flour Crisis Will Cause Instability?
The increase in price for food is becoming the main problem in Tajikistan. Unbelievable, I have been living in Dushanbe for about two months and I can feel the increase in prices in such a short period of time. It makes me nervous. The political parties in Tajikistan are already raising concerns about the current problem. Today the Scoial-democratic, Social and Democratic parties made joint announcement (rus) where they made the main focus on prices for flour and grain.
increase in price for this vital product in Tajikistan can become a reason for social and political instability, because according to them the minimal monthly wage (20 somoni = 5,7 USD) will not be enough even for a sack of flour.
Probably these guys do not know that the price for one sack of flour in Tajikistan has already reached 120 somonis.
The price of a 50 kilogram sack of flour more than doubled in the first two weeks in September from 60 to 120 somoni, or 32 US dollars.
This is the second major price jump this summer. In early August, the price of one sack of flour rose from 55 or 60 to reach 90 somoni. The government intervened by instructing flour traders not to sell 50 kg sacks for more than 70 somoni, but did not draw on state grain reserves to ease the shortage.
In their announcement they want the government to take measures. It means that they also don’t know that the price for grain and flour has increased in the whole Central Asian region, even in Russia, and the government will not be able to do anything. However I think they are right that the food crisis can become serious reason for instability in the country if other countries won’t help.
the chief editor of the newspaper, Aziya Plus, Marat Mamadshoyev, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta, “as long as there is light and gas in the republic, the people will be patient, but it is hard to predict what will happen when the cold comes.”
In this situation Russia could help Tajikistan in solving this problem as it always did for the obedience of the later, but as the Nezavisimaya Gazeta says,
Tajikistan need not count on Moscow’s benevolence. “After Dushanbe annulled the contract with RUSAL in unilateral order, we can hardly expect that Tajikistan will get any significant aid from Russia in overcoming the food crisis,” the expert believes.
on September 27th, 2007 at 5:02 pm
This doesn’t sound promising at all - especially with reports from Uzbekistan that vegetable oil and flour are going to be rationed (see Ferghana.ru and Registan). At the same time, I guess one could argue that the Uzbek government is doing something (regardless of motivations) and it might be the only course of action the Tajik government can take if external help isn’t forthcoming. Is it a possibility? Alternatively, which countries might have an interest in providing assistance? One can only hope it isn’t going to be yet another case when a crisis has to have already happened before anyone pays any attention.
on October 1st, 2007 at 2:17 pm
I think the price increase is artificial. Flour traders know that there will be a surge in demand for flour when ramadan ends and want to take advantage of the situation.
on October 2nd, 2007 at 5:58 am
I think the crisis has already happened before anyone paid any attention. One lepeshka (round bread) last year in this period of the year cost 25 dirams, now it costs 1 somoni (1 somoni = 100 dirams, 1USD=3.45 somoni). This is unjustifiable increase. Certainly the worst thing is that salaries are not changing according to the market trends. The more I live in this country after my long absence the more I don’t understand how do people survive.
on October 2nd, 2007 at 6:09 am
Tajik boy, you’re right that the price increase is artificial. Usually during the Holy Ramadan prices for food increase dramatically, because many families prepare (save money) for this month and they are ready to buy fresh food even for higher prices than usual. The traders know about it. It is worth of mentioning that Ramadan is not only about not-eating (fasting) but also about eating. People eat such a food during this month that they won’t eat during the rest of the year, mostly the sweet stuff.
on October 21st, 2007 at 7:03 pm
Hey guys, this comment does not exactly belong here, but some days ago, i read an article in “Le monde” speaking about the increase in the prices of cereals and the countries it would affect the most; accompanying this article was a map showing the poorest (cereal importing) countries who would suffer the most from this increase in cereal prices and oddly, in the whole Central Asia and Middle East, the most severe situation was apparently that of TJ, and i wondered how could this be true, given that all the post-soviet countries are more or less poor…
Now it is kind of believable as it if not the first time lately that i have heard my relatives complaining from this drastic increase in flour prices… but i thought that the situation was more or less the same in other central asian countries (except, KZ for instance).
So could someone who has enough information about this please clarify this?
PS - (by cereals i mean wheat and rice, and not kellogs cereal)